Scotland at ‘critical juncture’ ahead of John Swinney’s programme for government

John Swinney has been told he will need to announce the most radical policy programme since devolution, and commit “major additional public expenditure” if he wants to make rapid and significant progress on his key priorities.

The First Minister is to unveil his programme for government for the coming year in May instead of September with this giving him and fellow SNP ministers a full year before the next Holyrood elections to achieve their plans.

However, the Institute for Public Policy Reform (IPPR) Scotland told the SNP leader that “making rapid, significant progress” on his four top priorities – eradicating child poverty, growing the economy, tackling climate change and improving public services – would require “a policy programme more radical than any introduced to date under devolution and major additional public expenditure”.

Scotland stands at a critical juncture

On the First Minister’s desire to “eradicate” child poverty, the think tank made clear that current policy commitments, including the promise from SNP ministers to end the two-child cap on benefits in Scotland in 2026, would be “insufficient” to achieve this, or even to meet the target of reducing child poverty levels to 10% by 2030.

Instead it said it the government was “truly serious” about meeting the 2030 target it “must over the coming year start to set out a timetable for delivering the scale of investment necessary to turn that ambition into reality”.

The think tank made the intervention as director Stephen Boyd said: “Scotland stands at a critical juncture.

“If the government moves decisively in the right direction and recognises the scale of investment required, progress on the First Minister’s priorities is not impossible.”

He insisted that that IPPR Scotland was setting out a “practical, achievable and ambitious way forward for the coming year”.

As a country, Scotland needs to confront a stark reality - taxes will have to rise over the coming decades

As part of that the think tank called on ministers to look again at last year’s tax strategy to see “how devolved taxes can raise sufficient revenues for public services in the longer term”.

Here the think tank said there “should be particular emphasis on exploring what more can be done with respect to local taxation and wealth taxes”.

Its paper also made clear: “As a country, Scotland needs to confront a stark reality, taxes will have to rise over the coming decades.

“This is not a popular message of course, but this Scottish Government simply must start to acknowledge the truth of the situation.”

It published the report ahead Mr Swinney announcing his programme for government on Tuesday May 6.

But the think tank said that this comes as a time when the “chaotic policy agenda of an increasingly authoritarian US administration is adding substantially to the climate of uncertainty and negativity”.

Stressing that the Scottish Government should “think very carefully about its response to current challenges” the report said ministers should “avoid the ill-thought through and uncosted initiatives” that it said had been “scattered across” recent policy programmes.

To help tackle climate change it suggested ministers “develop a mission-based approach” in areas such as heat in buildings, where it said the country faces an “enormous logistical challenge” to move away from fossil fuel boilers, and to cut transport emissions, where there are “worrying signs” that sales of electric vehicles have “plateaued”.

To help grow the economy it suggested ministers “use the coming year to build some real momentum” on implementing the green industrial strategy that was set out last summer.

Here IPPR Scotland said an oversight board should be established to monitor and evaluate progress – but the think tank also said the government should “develop an effective approach to just transition”.

Here they stressed the importance of “learning from experience with Petroineos”, which is closing down Scotland’s only oil refinery at Grangemouth, with the think tank saying there should be an “effective process” put in place for “connecting workers at risk of redundancy in high emission sectors with opportunities in emerging low carbon and other sectors”.

We are determined to bring about real change for the people of Scotland and, as the IPPR welcomes, our programme for government will be laser focused on delivery

With US President Donald Trump having announced new tariffs, the think tank called for the Scottish Government to provide “targeted advice and support to those exporting industries which may experience rapidly falling demand due to higher tariffs”.

A Scottish Government spokesperson said: “We welcome the Institute for Public Policy Research’s constructive contribution.

“We are determined to bring about real change for the people of Scotland and, as the IPPR welcomes, our programme for government (PfG) will be laser focused on delivery.

“We will set out achievable actions to ensure resilience and deliver on the four core priorities to eradicate child poverty, grow the economy, tackle the climate emergency and ensure high quality and sustainable public services.

“Our ambitious PfG will respond to emerging economic challenges and ensure the needs of the devolved nations are at the heart of UK decision-making.”