Capercaillie down 9% amid extinction fears
A worrying new 9% decrease in males at leks in 2024 could be an indicator that capercaillie are heading into their final phase in Scotland’s forests.
That is the stark message from ‘hands on’ land managers who believe the Scottish people may represent the last chance to save the species from a second extinction.
Only 153 male birds were recorded at leks in key forests this year, 15 less than this time last year.
“Should this continue, it would result in an estimated further decline of 43% in capercaillie numbers by the time the next national survey is undertaken in 2027/28, on top of a 50% decline in the previous one,” said a spokesperson for the Scottish Gamekeepers Association.
Land managers now believe pressure from the public - armed with the facts - could be the last remaining hope the capercaillie has of remaining viable as a breeding species in Scotland’s.
A new emergency action plan for the species is due to be published shortly by Scottish Government’s nature advisers, NatureScot and the Cairngorms National Park.
However, practitioners within the stakeholder group set up to save capercaillie do not believe it adequately addresses the problem they see as fundamental: the increasing pressure on eggs and chicks from common and protected predators.
Abundant predators such as foxes and crows, which can legally be controlled, are impacting breeding success as are rising populations of protected pine marten, badgers and goshawks.
For decades, deer stalkers and gamekeepers have sat alongside scientists, conservationists, forestry and national park officials on the capercaillie task force, looking at ways to stem declines.
Despite warning at the outset that failure to ease predation pressure would spell disaster, practitioners’ opinions have been treated as peripheral within the Scottish Capercaillie Group.
“We said, 20 years ago, that capercaillie would become extinct in our lifetime. We were told, then, we had no evidence and that what we were saying was anecdotal,” said a source within the practitioner group.
Their hopes of a more robust conservation approach were raised in 2022 when a report by the Scientific Advisory Group (SAC) of NatureScot to Scottish Ministers backed their observations, stating a reduction in predators would ‘rapidly improve’ breeding success’.
However, since then, former Green Minister Lorna Slater requested that investment in habitat restoration should continue, to help capercaillie.
That raises concerns that not all the recommendations from the SAC report will be followed and the urgency will be lost.
Furthermore, instead of controlling foxes and crows, many land managers within the Scottish capercaillie range have been encouraged to choose the less tested option of diversionary feeding predators.
Whilst research on artificial nests suggested diversionary feeding has the potential to be successful, there has been no recovery in capercaillie numbers as a result - and now a further loss of lekking males has been reported.
“When working in these forests every day, we have been involved with populations of Capercaillie all of our lives. We’ve witnessed this dramatic decline with our own eyes and feel compelled to inform the public of the current situation,” said a group practitioner and member of The Scottish Gamekeepers Association.
“Sadly, everything we said in the past has been borne out in the recent counts. The numbers don’t lie.
“The last chance, therefore, is for the public to know the facts, with no spin.
“Maybe it is only through the public knowing what is happening, and asking questions, that we can save the Capercaillie. That is all we want; that people know the truth.
“By making a plea to the public, maybe a bigger discussion outside of capercaillie circles can begin, and we can get to the solutions the bird needs to remain here.”
Influential research by leading capercaillie scientists found that, to maintain populations at existing levels, a ratio of 0.6 chicks per hen was required during breeding. That ratio has not been met in Scotland for the last six years, suggesting more declines in future.
But the Cairngorm National Park Authority responded to the SGA with analysis and statistics of their own.
A spokesperson told the Strathy: “The impact of predation is not the only factor affecting capercaillie. Capercaillie continue to face a range of threats, including habitat loss, predation, climate change and human disturbance, which have not yet been adequately mitigated to reverse the population trend.
“With this in mind, the objective of the Capercaillie Emergency Plan, which will be published later this month, is to deliver a range of measures to improve capercaillie breeding success and survival across the core of the capercaillie range in the Cairngorms National Park.
“The headline ‘Capercaillie down 9% amid extinction fears’ suggests the population is down 9%, which is factually incorrect. The headline is based on the 2024 lek survey data, which is only a partial dataset, so it isn’t possible to use the data for an overall population estimate.
“As publicly reported here: https://cairngormscapercaillie.scot/capercaillie-lek-count-report-2024/, the decrease in lekking birds may have been due to restricted access and visibility of leks caused by winter storm damage.
“It is important to include this information to provide a more accurate account of why there may have been 15 fewer birds recorded on leks this year - some birds may not have been seen due to extensive wind blow.
“In response to the line, ‘Whilst research on artificial nests suggested diversionary feeding has the potential to be successful, there has been no recovery in capercaillie numbers as a result - and now a further loss of lekking males has been reported’ - from 2021 – 2023, the Cairngorms Connect Predator Project undertook a diversionary feeding trial which increased the chances of artificial nest survival by 83%.
“When diversionary feeding is present, early analysis of real broods also indicates an increase in the likelihood of detecting a hen with chicks instead of a barren hen.
“The research is now published in the British Ecological Society’s Journal of Applied Ecology, and the majority of land managers in capercaillie areas within the Cairngorms National Park are now deploying diversionary feeding. As the deployment of diversionary feeding outside the trial only began this year, it is too early to identify changes in capercaillie populations.”
